Despite a recovery in business results, most real estate stocks, with the exception of VHM (Vinhomes), have continued to decline since October 2025. Some have fallen back to levels last seen at the end of 2022, when Vietnam’s market was hit hard by a corporate bond crisis.
Industry profits surge, but recovery remains uneven
Financial statements for the second quarter showed relatively strong results among real estate companies, with several reporting sharp increases in profit.
Vinhomes (HoSE: VHM) posted revenue of over VND52.72 trillion ($2.02 billion) in Q2, up 2.9 times from a year earlier, as it accelerated handovers at major projects. Net profit rose 2.7 times to nearly VND26.47 trillion ($1.01 billion).
In the first six months, net revenue reached nearly VND116.57 trillion ($4.47 billion) and net profit over VND52.09 trillion ($52.09 billion), up 3.4 times and fivefold year-on-year, respectively.
DIC Corp (HoSE: DIG) reported Q2 revenue of VND613 billion ($23.5 million), more than double the year-earlier figure, as its property business recovered. Net profit rose 2.7 times to VND143 billion ($5.48 million).
For the first half, revenue increased 77% to VND758 billion ($29.06 million), while net profit reached VND133.5 billion ($5.12 million), nearly 20 times the year-earlier level.
Novaland (HoSE: NVL) reported Q2 net profit of VND912 billion ($34.96 million), a significant improvement from a loss of VND190 billion a year earlier. First-half net profit reached over VND1.77 trillion ($67.94 million), equivalent to about 96% of the full-year target approved by shareholders, compared with a loss of VND666 billion in the same period last year.
Phat Dat Real Estate Development (HoSE: PDR) posted Q2 net profit of VND80.5 billion ($3.09 million), up 24%, helped by portfolio restructuring. First-half net profit rose 89% year-on-year to VND218 billion ($8.36 million).
Khang Dien House (KDH) reported a record Q2 profit of VND770 billion ($29.52 million), three times the year-earlier figure. Its first-half net profit reached nearly VND1.1 trillion ($42.06 million), up 248%.
The recovery, however, has not been broad-based. Companies including Dat Xanh Group (DXG), Nam Long Investment (NLG) and TTC Land (SCR) reported steep declines in Q2 profit. Dat Xanh Real Estate Services (DXS) even reported a quarterly loss.
According to Maybank Securities Vietnam (MSVN), industry-wide net profit attributable to parent-company shareholders (NPATMI) surged 210.8% year-on-year in Q2, with the recovery concentrated among a handful of companies. Vinhomes made the largest contribution, driven by high-margin bulk sales, while Khang Dien and Novaland benefited from one-off gains from project divestments.
Excluding VHM, KDH and NVL, industry profit still rose about 75%. However, earnings quality remains uneven, as financial income accounted for a significant share of profit growth at many companies outside Vinhomes, suggesting that a broad-based recovery in core operations has yet to take place.
Selective investment approach needed
Against this backdrop, most real estate stocks, regardless of whether their earnings have improved, have continued to decline since October 2025, with VHM the notable exception. Several stocks, including DIG, SCR, KDH and NLG, have fallen back to levels seen at the end of 2022, when the corporate bond crisis erupted.
Maybank Securities Vietnam said the real estate sector entered Q2 of 2026 at an important turning point, with earnings recovering strongly while valuations had fallen close to historic lows. The sector was trading at around 0.94-0.95 times price-to-book value, well below its long-term average of about 1.5 times.
Interest rates have been a major factor weighing on real estate stocks. According to Maybank Securities analysts, floating mortgage rates have risen to around 10-14%, putting pressure on homebuyers’ affordability. At the same time, higher borrowing costs are highlighting the gap between developers with strong execution capabilities and those more reliant on financial income or asset sales.
The market is becoming increasingly fragmented. Hanoi has entered a phase of absorbing supply following the 2024-2025 growth cycle. New supply reached about 8,600 units in the Q2 of 2026, while sales totaled around 6,000 units, pushing the absorption rate down to about 70%. Prices, however, remained high at around VND95 million ($3,640) per square meter.
In Ho Chi Minh City, supply remains a bottleneck, with only about 1,000 units launched and 700 sold in Q2/2026. The absorption rate remained relatively strong at 75-80%, while average prices rose to around VND93 million ($3.57 million) per sqm, close to Hanoi levels.
Maybank Securities expects interest rates to remain relatively stable as domestic support policies are offset by foreign-exchange pressures and competition for capital from infrastructure investment. Supply in Ho Chi Minh City could gradually recover from the second half of 2026 as legal bottlenecks are resolved, shifting the sector’s focus from project approvals toward actual absorption and execution.
Maybank Securities therefore maintains a selectively positive view on real estate stocks, favoring developers with healthy balance sheets, strong execution capabilities, and strategically located land banks.
