Cairns defies property downturn with 5.3pc annual jump

Cairns has pulled 5.3 per cent growth in the past year, beating inflation

Cairns is defying property falls of up to $77,000 in the southeast, with prices jumping an inflation-beating 5.3 per cent in the past year despite everything the economy and rates have thrown at it.

As property owners in Brisbane and the Gold Coast nurse peak-to-trough losses of $77,321 and $51,946 respectively, greater Cairns dwelling values sat at a median of $660,000 in October, according to the latest Realestate.com.au Home Price Index.

Realestate.com.au senior economist Eleanor Creagh. Picture, John Gass

The 5.31 per cent annual surge has comfortably outpaced both Australia’s headline inflation rate of 4.3 per cent and the falling national housing market (-1.9 per cent YoY), delivering Far North homeowners a clean $33,300 equity windfall over the past 12 months.

The current property downturn has scratched the Cairns market though, with dwelling values edging down 0.12 per cent in October and houses falling 0.78 per cent over the past quarter to $740,000.

But that peak-to-trough drop amounts to just $5,817, for homes that are now roughly half the price of a house in Brisbane ($1.15m) or the Gold Coast home ($1.39m) – a massive affordability advantage that continues to draw buyers.

Units have also proved exceptionally resilient, dipping 0.21 per cent in October to $451,000 – a tiny $1,085 graze off peak- while sitting 6.54 per cent higher than a year ago.

Realestate.com.au senior economist Eleanor Creagh found Cairns has used its affordability to outmuscle the rest of the nation.

“Cairns home prices edged lower in October, with dwelling values falling 0.1pc, driven by modest declines across both houses and units,” Ms Creagh said.

“Prices remain 5.3pc higher than a year ago, so Cairns is still outperforming the national market, but the pace of growth has slowed considerably from earlier in the year.

Latest data shows unit prices declined 0.2pc in the month but remain 6.5pc above their level a year ago

“House prices fell 0.1pc in October and are 4.9pc higher annually, while unit prices declined 0.2pc but remain 6.5pc above their level a year ago.”

Ms Creagh said the city’s ability to stand tall while capital cities falter comes down to a triple combination of affordability, lifestyle, and a chronic shortage of listings.

“The relative resilience of Cairns reflects its affordability advantage compared with South East Queensland and the major capitals, alongside local supply constraints and lifestyle demand,” she said.

But Ms Creagh warned even Cairns cannot escape macroeconomic gravity forever, warning that buyer borrowing limits are beginning to bite elsewhere.

“Cairns is not immune to the broader housing downturn. Higher interest rates are limiting what buyers can borrow, and the modest declines recorded across all property types suggest those pressures are increasingly being felt.

“Further price weakness is likely, particularly if interest rates rise again, although Cairns’ relative affordability should provide some support compared with more expensive markets.”

Ms Creagh said while the days of rapid capital growth have ended, Cairns remains far better shielded than its southern counterparts.

“Cairns is still outperforming the national market, but the exceptional momentum seen earlier in the year has faded,” Ms Creagh said.

“Higher borrowing costs and weaker confidence are increasingly weighing on demand, even in comparatively affordable regional markets.

“A fifth interest rate increase would add further pressure to Queensland housing markets at a time when buyer demand is already weakening.

“The Gold Coast is more exposed to this affordability squeeze given its much higher property prices, while Cairns and Townsville retain a degree of protection from their comparatively lower price points.”

Realestate.com.au Home Price results for Cairns:

All Dwellings: Median $660,000 | MoM: -0.12pc | QoQ: -0.66pc | YoY: +5.31pc (+$33,300)

Houses: Median $740,000 | MoM: -0.09pc | QoQ: -0.78pc | YoY: +4.91pc | Drop from Peak: -$5,817 (-0.78pc)

Units / Apartments: Median $451,000 | MoM: -0.21pc | QoQ: -0.24pc | YoY: +6.54pc | Drop from Peak: -$1,085 (-0.24pc)