The gap is widening between the number of people who want homes and the pipeline of properties to house them, with new data revealing a shortage of 88,809 approvals over the next three years.
According to an analysis of Australian Bureau of Statistics data commissioned by Bolst Property Group, Collingwood in Victoria has the biggest building black spot gap between new residents and building approvals in the nation, suggesting a housing shortfall.
According to the report, the suburb had 1554 new residents between 2022 and 2025, with an estimated dwelling demand of 818 to house them.
From 2023 to 2025 there were only 40 dwellings approved, leaving an estimated approval gap of 778, which equates to a shortfall of 130 homes per 1000 estimated homes.
For the 2025/26 financial year, there were only 21 Collingwood approvals granted.
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Western Australia’s Claremont faced the next biggest shortfall, with 1294 new residents between 2022 and 2025 and an estimated dwelling demand of 588, but just 16 dwellings approved between 2023 and 2025, leaving a gap of 572 approvals.
This left a gap of 115 homes per 1000 estimated homes, with just 154 approvals granted between 2025 and 2026.
New South Wales Hurstville-Central area had the third biggest shortfall, with a gap of 102 homes per 1000 estimated homes, with the ACT’s Reid and the NT’s Mount Johns rounding out the top five with gaps of 102 and 98 approvals per 1000 estimated homes.
Bolst Property Group founder Tom Bolst
Mr Bolst said the ramifications of housing shortfalls meant more people competing harder for fewer suitable homes.
“That can mean stretching a budget, accepting a smaller property or moving further from work and family,” he said.
“First home buyers are particularly exposed because they have less room to absorb additional costs.
“The study doesn’t predict a specific increase in prices or rents, but it highlights supply pressures that can make housing harder to access.”
Mr Bolst said the red tape would need to be slashed and better co-ordination of infrastructure was needed to get homes on the ground.
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“In greenfield areas, identifying future residential land is only the beginning,” he said.
“It needs roads, water, sewerage and the necessary approvals before homes can be delivered.
“Skilled trades and project finance matter too, but we should be removing avoidable delays before construction even starts.
“Clear deadlines and accountability across the process would make a meaningful difference.
“In my view, the pace of delivery still isn’t good enough.
“There have been useful reforms, but governments need to be judged on completed homes and the time it takes to deliver them.”
Carpenter Tom Ferraro building a home for Hickinbotham Group at Roseworthy, South Australia. Picture: Brett Hartwig
WA’s Aveley, NSW’s Kogarah, NT’s Larrakeyah, NSW’s Spring Farm and WA’s Success-Hammond Park rounded out the top 10 for building black spots when looking at the approval gap per 1000 estimated homes.
No Tasmanian suburbs recorded a shortfall, with the state’s population growing by fewer than 4000 people in three years while about 8000 dwellings were approved.
Master Builders Association this week released a forecast which showed that over the next five years to FY 2030-31 less than 920,000 new homes will commence, an 8.4 per cent write down compared with March’s forecasts.
Master Builders Australia CEO Denita Wawn
Master Builders Australia chief executive officer Denita Wawn said these forecasts provide further evidence that policy is moving in the wrong direction and needs to change course.
“Modelling confirms that the Budget will deprive us of many new homes over the years ahead, and force rents even higher,” she said.
“Master Builders raised the alarm early this year that this would be the result, the Government chose to proceed and now the consequences are clear.
“New home building struggles to expand because of tradie shortages, reduced investment, declining productivity and regulation totalling up to $320,000 per new house.
“The federal budget tax changes that are pulling down supply and jeopardising the financial must be reversed
“Builders are calling for a pro-construction agenda that removes unnecessary regulation, improves the investment environment and fixes the systems they rely on, including the National Construction Code, skilled migration settings and domestic training pathways.”
The Hickinbotham Group’s Michael Hickinbotham. Supplied
Hickinbotham Group Managing Director Michael Hickinbotham, whose company builds in South Australia, said the SA Government deserved to be commended for its commitment to increasing land supply.
“Now we need urgency across the whole process to expedite land rezonings and fast-track housing approvals,” he said.
“We need investment in essential infrastructure, especially water and wastewater that makes new land ready for homes.
“We cannot let delays between planning, servicing and construction hold back the homes South Australians need.
“HomeStart’s excellent shared equity scheme should also be expanded by raising its purchase price limit from $750,000 to $850,000, bringing home ownership within reach for more people.”
