September’s Fed decision may have sparked something agents haven’t felt in months: a feeling that the tide may soon turn for buyer pipelines, according to the latest Inman Intel Index survey.
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For most real estate agents, not much has changed on the ground over the past month as client activity remains depressed.
For many in the Southeast, the aftermath of a devastating storm changed everything overnight.
But as Federal Reserve officials unveiled a swift set of actions to reduce interest rates, agents throughout the country were increasingly hopeful that buyers will come back to the table in the coming months, according to Intel’s Client Pipeline Tracker metric.
Client Pipeline Tracker score in September: -5
- Previous score: -8 in August
- Recent peak: +7 in January
Chart by Daniel Houston
This month’s Tracker metric is based on preliminary responses to the Inman Intel Index survey of real estate professionals from Sept. 18-Oct. 3.
Intel breaks down the various factors that may be producing a glimmer of hope in an otherwise challenging business environment.
Read the full breakdown of the latest Client Pipeline Tracker results in the report below.
At a stasis point
Intel’s Client Pipeline Tracker is a compilation of how agents feel about their buyer and seller pipelines — both over the past year and in the near future.
Intel described the full methodology in this post, but here’s a quick refresher on how to interpret the scores.
- A score of 0 represents a neutral period in which client pipelines are neither improving nor worsening.
- A positive score reflects a market in which client pipelines have been improving, or are widely expected to improve in the next 12 months. The higher the rating, the more confident agents are in that conditions are moving in a positive direction.
- A negative score suggests client pipeline conditions are worsening, or are widely expected to get worse in the year to come.
An extremely positive combined score falls somewhere around +20. This type of score would signify that much of the industry is in agreement with the fact that pipelines are improving and will continue to improve.
An extremely negative combined score, on the other hand, falls closer to -20. That’s a bit lower than where the industry stood in September, the first time Intel surveyed agents about their pipelines.
For the four individual components that go into the score, results as high as +50 or as low -50 are sometimes observed.
Here are the component scores for September, and how each sentiment category changed from the previous month.
CPT component scores
August → September
- Present buyer pipelines: -38 → -38
- Future buyer pipelines: -4 → +7
- Present seller pipelines: -17 → -17
- Future seller pipelines: +7 → +6
We see in the components above that attitudes toward present and future pipeline conditions remain remarkably stable — with one significant exception.
Agents in September became as optimistic about their buyer pipelines over the coming year as they’ve felt at any point since February — a time when economic expectations were still high and the terms of the NAR settlement were not yet known.
Still, even as this optimism toward buyers has risen, it remains tempered by present conditions.
- Buyer pipelines remain especially hard-hit, with 3 in 5 agent respondents in September telling Intel their present-day buyer pool was thinner than at the same time last year.
- Listings, too, have been tough to find. Nearly 45 percent of agents who took September’s survey reported their listing pipelines were lighter than the same time last year, compared to 23 percent who said they were heavier.
It’s when looking forward that agents are starting to sing a newly hopeful tune in recent weeks — although with a healthy dose of caution as well.
A shot in the arm
The real estate industry had been watching for the signs all year.
Brokerage leaders and rank-and-file agents alike knew that their hopes for a healthier sales environment were tied to how soon — and how fast — the Fed could bring down rates this year after its protracted fight against price inflation.
And at the start of the year, hopes were high that a rate cut might come as soon as spring.
But as new inflation data delayed these hopes, agents’ outlook for their own business prospects sank.
In September, however, they finally got what they wanted: commitment from the Fed that the inflation fight was winding down, and a new series of rate cuts that could lure more consumers back onto the market.
And this development — moreso than even the falling mortgage rates of the weeks before — coincided with the biggest positive shift in buyer-pipeline attitudes among agents in months.
- 41 percent of agent respondents told Intel in September that they expected their buyer pipelines would be heavier in 12 months, compared to 31 percent who said the same the month before.
- Only 22 percent of agent respondents in September said that they think their buyer pipelines will get lighter in the coming year, down from 29 percent in August.
As with any monthly shift of this nature, it will be important to wait for future surveys to help confirm if it is the first step in a broader shift, or a blip. Intel will continue to track these developments closely.
Methodology notes: This month’s Inman Intel Index survey was conducted Sept. 18-Oct. 4, 2024, and had received 439 responses as of late Thursday. The numbers used for this article are preliminary and subject to revision. The entire Inman reader community was invited to participate, and a rotating, randomized selection of community members was prompted to participate by email. Users responded to a series of questions related to their self-identified corner of the real estate industry — including real estate agents, brokerage leaders, lenders and proptech entrepreneurs. Results reflect the opinions of the engaged Inman community, which may not always match those of the broader real estate industry. This survey is conducted monthly.
