When Apple launched the iPhone XR, no one had heard of COVID-19 and most of us only wore masks at Halloween.
That iPhone model came out in September 2018, a whole 6 years ago. And on Monday, Apple committed to supporting this device for another year, so it will work for at least 7 years.
Apple usually makes some old iPhone models obsolete every year by dropping software support. In 2023, Apple stopped supporting 3 iPhones. The year before that, even more models went kaput. This is great for revenue because most users upgrade and pay $500 or more. It’s known as the “upgrade cycle” and investors love it.
This year, though, Apple did the opposite. It didn’t make any iPhones obsolete. The new iOS 18 supports the same older devices that iOS 17 did. The company now supports an incredible 28 iPhone models (counting the iPhone SE 2nd and 3rd generation).
Is Apple just being kind? Does it not want billions of dollars in juicy “upgrade cycle” revenue? That’s part of it. Apple cares deeply what users think about its technology. Bricking loads of iPhones every year would go down badly.
There’s more to it, though.
The company is slowly rolling out new AI features for some of its newest iPhones. But this Apple Intelligence won’t be fully available until 2025.
Meanwhile, Google and Samsung already have Android smartphones in the market that offer way more AI features.
If Apple made 2 or 3 old iPhones obsolete right now, there would be millions of consumers out there looking to buy a new smartphone. What if some of these people decided to try an Android device to check out the new AI bells and whistles?
Losing even a small percentage of these old-iPhone users to Android would be a blow to Apple. The company has been gaining users in recent years, so keeping them all in its iOS platform is paramount.
“Apple wants no defections,” Dan Ives, a tech analyst at Wedbush Securities, told me on Monday.
Some Android handset makers have also been making big promises when it comes to device support. Earlier this year, Samsung said it would provide software updates for its Galaxy phones for 7 years. Apple may be matching this pledge for a similar reason: It wants to keep users on its platform.
If it can pull this off, the full Apple Intelligence features will be coming in 2025. That’s when a major upgrade cycle is possible for Apple.
Apple Intelligence will only work on the new iPhone 16 models and the iPhone 15 Pro and 15 Pro Max. If these features are really compelling, there may be a genuine reason for users to swap out old phones next year.
“They want to keep everyone on and then the upgrades to Apple Intelligence begin,” Ives explained. “It’s about changing the pattern this time. The biggest upgrade cycle in Apple’s history is on deck.”
