Despite the prevalence of small drones on the modern battlefield, the US is likely not producing enough of the technology to meet potential wartime needs, a report by Defense One said.
Drone warfare has continued to make headlines during the Russia-Ukraine war, with the relatively cheap technology having played a major role for both sides.
While Russia has relied heavily on drones like the Iranian-made Shahed-136, Ukraine has found sucess with small first-person-view (FPV) drones — consumer drones that Ukrainian forces adapt for combat.
As the importance of the technology to the war effort became increasingly clearer, Ukraine sought to ramp up production, with Ukrainian officials saying the country would produce more than a million drones this year.
Russia has also said it would be boosting production.
“By 2030, we plan to produce 32,000 drones [annually], covering around 70% [of Russia’s needs],” Russian defense minister Andrei Belousov said last year, per Russia’s Tass news agency.
But experts told Defense One the US was likely producing far fewer drones than this, possibly up to just a few thousand a month.
And in drone warfare, the side with the most powerful tech does not necessarily hold the advantage, rather it is the side with the largest stocks and with the ability to quickly mass produce and replace them.
And that could be a problem for the US, which has long relied instead on building large, advanced systems like the MQ-9 Reaper drone — which, at around $30 million each, have nevertheless had a tough year battling the Houthi rebels around Yemen, with a number going down.
Comparatively, the loss of a small FPV drone is not such a big issue.
US drone manufacturers such as Skydio could boost their production levels to help level the playing field, but they face stiff global sales competition from Chinese firms, which have large research teams and can often offer far cheaper drones to prospective buyers, per the report.
China is a major player in the global drone industry, but US authorities consider firms like China’s DJI a security threat and have proposed to effectively ban new sales of them in the country.
Nevertheless, they are still the go-to option for many US operators — particularly emergency services.
Ryan Gury, the CEO and cofounder of Performance Drone Works, told Business Insider that companies like DJI “had a huge head start.”
However, Gury said, “those drones are made for consumers, amateurs, hobbyists, or cinematography.”
“We believe the future of warfare will be surrounded by small robotics, small sensors that can be deployed by small fire teams, units, and single soldiers,” Gury said, adding that “American defense and our ability to innovate are still within the realm of leading the world.”
Regardless, the US must now find a way to stimulate demand if it wants to boost production.
“Until the U.S. military mainstreams operational concepts that demand large numbers of drones, production will remain at a relatively low level,” Bryan Clark, a senior fellow and director at the Hudson Institute’s Center for Defense Concepts and Technology, told Defense One.
David Benowitz, the head of research at drone market firm DroneAnalyst, told the outlet that the military would also have to increase drone orders if it has ambitions of closing the price and capacity gaps with China.
But Gury noted that not just any drones will do: “You can’t use GPS anymore on the battlefield. It’s easily jammed. You need systems that use satellite imagery to look at the ground. You need radio systems designed to overcome electronic warfare. You need drones that perform well at night on the battlefield in tactical environments.”
