This combination of pictures created on October 25, 2024 shows US Vice-President and Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris in Houston, Texas on October 25, 2024 and former US President Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump in East Del Valle, Austin, Texas on October 25, 2024.
Roberto Schmidtsergio Flores | AFP | Getty Images
Upstart broker Robinhood is jumping into the prediction betting game, announcing Monday users can begin trading the 2024 presidential election that is eight days away.
Users can trade a Kamala Harris or Donald Trump contract starting Monday, said the company, as long as they meet certain criteria that include being a U.S. citizen. The trading is being offered through its Robinhood Derivatives unit and ForecastEx.
Robinhood jumps into a suddenly crowded politics prediction markets field that grew this month after platform Kalshi won a key ruling against the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which was seeking to stop the election outcome trading. The CFTC is appealing the ruling. Shortly after, Robinhood competitor Interactive Brokers launched various political contracts, including on the election.
The election markets have generated some controversary this year with some concerned about light volume allowing the markets to be skewed. International platform Polymarket said last week that a single French user was responsible for four accounts spending millions to buy the Trump contract. But Polymarket said an investigation found the trading was not manipulating the market.
“We believe event contracts give people a tool to engage in real-time decision-making, unlocking a new asset class that democratizes access to events as they unfold,” said Robinhood in a statement.
Odds and gambling platforms do not use methodologies used by traditional political polling, and therefore are not substitutes for political polls.
